Current regime 2026-11-08 15:55:00
Range

Low-volatility environment; not a price direction signal.

Hard state uses EMA probabilities with 20.0 pp hysteresis and may differ from the single-bar max probability.

Sample size 200 500 1000
Range prob.
75.5%
Low-vol weak-trend environment
Trend regime prob.
16.5%
Medium-vol environment, not bullish
Panic prob.
8.0%
Sustained confirm: Not triggered
Risk factor
1.00
Lower = more defensive
Regime probabilities

Range/trend/panic describe volatility and risk environment, not long/short direction. Hard state switches after hysteresis; a challenger must lead clearly. Sustained panic confirm is a separate risk flag and may differ from the hard state.

Regime history (Last 40 rows)
Time Status Range Trend Panic Risk factor
2026-11-08 15:55:00 Range 75.5% 16.5% 8.0% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:50:00 Range 75.7% 16.4% 7.9% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:45:00 Range 76.0% 16.3% 7.7% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:40:00 Range 76.3% 16.2% 7.5% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:35:00 Range 76.7% 16.1% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:30:00 Range 76.7% 16.1% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:25:00 Range 76.7% 16.1% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:20:00 Range 76.6% 16.2% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:15:00 Range 76.6% 16.3% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:10:00 Range 76.5% 16.3% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:05:00 Range 76.5% 16.4% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 15:00:00 Range 76.5% 16.4% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:55:00 Range 76.4% 16.4% 7.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:50:00 Range 76.3% 16.5% 7.3% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:45:00 Range 76.1% 16.5% 7.3% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:40:00 Range 75.9% 16.6% 7.5% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:35:00 Range 75.8% 16.7% 7.5% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:30:00 Range 75.6% 16.8% 7.6% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:25:00 Range 75.4% 16.9% 7.7% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:20:00 Range 75.2% 17.0% 7.8% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:15:00 Range 75.0% 17.1% 7.9% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:10:00 Range 74.9% 17.2% 8.0% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:05:00 Range 74.9% 17.2% 7.9% 1.00
2026-11-08 14:00:00 Range 74.9% 17.2% 7.9% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:55:00 Range 74.9% 17.3% 7.8% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:50:00 Range 74.8% 17.4% 7.8% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:45:00 Range 74.7% 17.5% 7.8% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:40:00 Range 74.6% 17.7% 7.7% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:35:00 Range 74.6% 17.7% 7.7% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:30:00 Range 74.5% 17.8% 7.7% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:25:00 Range 74.4% 17.9% 7.7% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:20:00 Range 74.3% 18.0% 7.8% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:15:00 Range 74.1% 18.1% 7.8% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:10:00 Range 73.9% 18.3% 7.8% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:05:00 Range 73.5% 18.6% 7.9% 1.00
2026-11-08 13:00:00 Range 73.1% 18.9% 8.0% 1.00
2026-11-08 12:55:00 Range 72.7% 19.2% 8.1% 1.00
2026-11-08 12:50:00 Range 72.2% 19.6% 8.2% 1.00
2026-11-08 12:45:00 Range 71.5% 20.1% 8.3% 1.00
2026-11-08 12:40:00 Range 70.8% 20.6% 8.5% 1.00