Market Regime

BTCUSDT · Range, trend & panic probabilities

Current regime 2026-09-24 14:40:00
Range

Low-volatility environment; not a price direction signal.

Hard state uses EMA probabilities with 20.0 pp hysteresis and may differ from the single-bar max probability.

Sample size 200 500 1000
Range prob.
57.5%
Low-vol weak-trend environment
Trend regime prob.
11.8%
Medium-vol environment, not bullish
Panic prob.
30.8%
Sustained confirm: Not triggered
Risk factor
1.00
Lower = more defensive
Regime probabilities

Range/trend/panic describe volatility and risk environment, not long/short direction. Hard state switches after hysteresis; a challenger must lead clearly. Sustained panic confirm is a separate risk flag and may differ from the hard state.

Regime history (Last 40 rows)
Time Status Range Trend Panic Risk factor
2026-09-24 14:40:00 Range 57.5% 11.8% 30.8% 1.00
2026-09-24 14:35:00 Range 54.3% 12.0% 33.7% 1.00
2026-09-24 14:30:00 Range 50.5% 12.3% 37.2% 1.00
2026-09-24 14:25:00 Panic 46.2% 12.6% 41.2% 0.30
2026-09-24 14:20:00 Panic 41.4% 12.9% 45.8% 0.30
2026-09-24 14:15:00 Panic 36.4% 13.4% 50.2% 0.30
2026-09-24 14:10:00 Panic 32.1% 14.1% 53.8% 0.30
2026-09-24 14:05:00 Panic 29.2% 14.7% 56.0% 0.30
2026-09-24 14:00:00 Panic 28.2% 15.1% 56.8% 0.30
2026-09-24 13:55:00 Panic 28.1% 15.2% 56.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 13:50:00 Panic 29.6% 15.0% 55.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 13:45:00 Panic 31.6% 14.7% 53.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 13:40:00 Panic 34.5% 14.4% 51.1% 0.30
2026-09-24 13:35:00 Panic 37.6% 14.1% 48.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 13:30:00 Range 40.6% 13.7% 45.7% 1.00
2026-09-24 13:25:00 Range 43.2% 13.5% 43.3% 1.00
2026-09-24 13:20:00 Range 46.1% 13.2% 40.7% 1.00
2026-09-24 13:15:00 Range 49.2% 13.0% 37.8% 1.00
2026-09-24 13:10:00 Range 52.2% 12.8% 35.0% 1.00
2026-09-24 13:05:00 Range 54.6% 12.4% 33.0% 1.00
2026-09-24 13:00:00 Range 56.1% 11.6% 32.3% 1.00
2026-09-24 12:55:00 Range 56.6% 10.2% 33.2% 1.00
2026-09-24 12:50:00 Range 53.2% 10.1% 36.7% 1.00
2026-09-24 12:45:00 Panic 48.3% 10.5% 41.2% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:40:00 Panic 42.6% 10.9% 46.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:35:00 Panic 35.9% 11.5% 52.6% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:30:00 Panic 28.3% 12.1% 59.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:25:00 Panic 21.4% 12.9% 65.6% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:20:00 Panic 16.1% 13.6% 70.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:15:00 Panic 12.7% 13.9% 73.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:10:00 Panic 11.7% 13.8% 74.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:05:00 Panic 11.7% 13.6% 74.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:00:00 Panic 10.9% 13.4% 75.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:55:00 Panic 11.2% 13.3% 75.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:50:00 Panic 10.5% 13.0% 76.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:45:00 Panic 9.5% 12.7% 77.8% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:40:00 Panic 7.8% 12.3% 79.9% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:35:00 Panic 5.8% 11.8% 82.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:30:00 Panic 4.4% 11.2% 84.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:25:00 Panic 3.1% 10.4% 86.5% 0.30