Current regime 2026-08-08 17:10:00
Range

Low-volatility environment; not a price direction signal.

Hard state uses EMA probabilities with 20.0 pp hysteresis and may differ from the single-bar max probability.

Sample size 200 500 1000
Range prob.
72.5%
Low-vol weak-trend environment
Trend regime prob.
15.7%
Medium-vol environment, not bullish
Panic prob.
11.7%
Sustained confirm: Not triggered
Risk factor
1.00
Lower = more defensive
Regime probabilities

Range/trend/panic describe volatility and risk environment, not long/short direction. Hard state switches after hysteresis; a challenger must lead clearly. Sustained panic confirm is a separate risk flag and may differ from the hard state.

Regime history (Last 40 rows)
Time Status Range Trend Panic Risk factor
2026-08-08 17:10:00 Range 72.5% 15.7% 11.7% 1.00
2026-08-08 17:05:00 Range 72.4% 15.7% 11.9% 1.00
2026-08-08 17:00:00 Range 72.2% 15.8% 12.0% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:55:00 Range 72.0% 15.8% 12.2% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:50:00 Range 71.8% 15.8% 12.4% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:45:00 Range 71.6% 15.9% 12.5% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:40:00 Range 71.4% 15.9% 12.7% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:35:00 Range 71.2% 15.9% 12.9% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:30:00 Range 71.0% 16.0% 13.1% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:25:00 Range 70.7% 16.0% 13.3% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:20:00 Range 70.5% 16.0% 13.5% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:15:00 Range 70.2% 16.1% 13.7% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:10:00 Range 69.9% 16.1% 14.0% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:05:00 Range 69.6% 16.2% 14.2% 1.00
2026-08-08 16:00:00 Range 69.3% 16.2% 14.5% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:55:00 Range 69.0% 16.2% 14.7% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:50:00 Range 68.7% 16.3% 15.0% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:45:00 Range 68.4% 16.3% 15.3% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:40:00 Range 68.1% 16.4% 15.6% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:35:00 Range 67.7% 16.4% 15.9% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:30:00 Range 67.3% 16.5% 16.2% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:25:00 Range 66.9% 16.5% 16.5% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:20:00 Range 66.6% 16.6% 16.8% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:15:00 Range 66.2% 16.7% 17.2% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:10:00 Range 65.8% 16.7% 17.5% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:05:00 Range 65.3% 16.8% 17.9% 1.00
2026-08-08 15:00:00 Range 64.9% 16.9% 18.2% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:55:00 Range 64.5% 16.9% 18.6% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:50:00 Range 64.0% 17.0% 19.0% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:45:00 Range 63.5% 17.1% 19.4% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:40:00 Range 62.9% 17.2% 19.9% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:35:00 Range 62.3% 17.3% 20.4% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:30:00 Range 61.8% 17.3% 20.9% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:25:00 Range 61.2% 17.4% 21.4% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:20:00 Range 60.6% 17.5% 21.9% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:15:00 Range 59.9% 17.6% 22.5% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:10:00 Range 59.3% 17.7% 23.0% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:05:00 Range 58.6% 17.8% 23.7% 1.00
2026-08-08 14:00:00 Range 57.8% 17.9% 24.3% 1.00
2026-08-08 13:55:00 Range 57.0% 18.0% 25.0% 1.00