市場狀態

BTCUSDT · 震盪、趨勢與恐慌概率

當前狀態 2026-09-24 12:40:00
恐慌

高波動衝擊環境，表示風險收縮，不代表價格方向。

硬狀態按 EMA 概率並採用 20.0 個百分點滯回切換，不一定等於當根最高概率。

樣本數量 200 500 1000
震盪概率
42.6%
低波動、弱趨勢環境
趨勢環境概率
10.9%
中等波動環境，非看漲信號
恐慌概率
46.4%
持續確認：未觸發
風險係數
0.30
越低表示越偏防守
狀態概率

震盪/趨勢/恐慌描述波動與風險環境，不是多空方向。硬狀態經滯回去抖後切換；挑戰態需明顯領先才會換軌。恐慌持續確認是獨立風控標記，可與當前硬狀態不同時成立。

狀態歷史 (最近 40 條)
時間 狀態 震蕩 趨勢 恐慌 風險係數
2026-09-24 12:40:00 恐慌 42.6% 10.9% 46.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:35:00 恐慌 35.9% 11.5% 52.6% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:30:00 恐慌 28.3% 12.1% 59.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:25:00 恐慌 21.4% 12.9% 65.6% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:20:00 恐慌 16.1% 13.6% 70.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:15:00 恐慌 12.7% 13.9% 73.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:10:00 恐慌 11.7% 13.8% 74.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:05:00 恐慌 11.7% 13.6% 74.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 12:00:00 恐慌 10.9% 13.4% 75.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:55:00 恐慌 11.2% 13.3% 75.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:50:00 恐慌 10.5% 13.0% 76.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:45:00 恐慌 9.5% 12.7% 77.8% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:40:00 恐慌 7.8% 12.3% 79.9% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:35:00 恐慌 5.8% 11.8% 82.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:30:00 恐慌 4.4% 11.2% 84.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:25:00 恐慌 3.1% 10.4% 86.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:20:00 恐慌 2.2% 9.5% 88.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:15:00 恐慌 1.8% 8.6% 89.6% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:10:00 恐慌 1.6% 7.7% 90.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:05:00 恐慌 1.7% 7.0% 91.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 11:00:00 恐慌 1.7% 6.5% 91.8% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:55:00 恐慌 1.8% 6.1% 92.2% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:50:00 恐慌 1.8% 5.6% 92.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:45:00 恐慌 1.9% 5.2% 92.8% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:40:00 恐慌 2.0% 4.9% 93.1% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:35:00 恐慌 2.1% 4.7% 93.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:30:00 恐慌 2.2% 4.4% 93.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:25:00 恐慌 2.3% 4.3% 93.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:20:00 恐慌 2.5% 4.3% 93.2% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:15:00 恐慌 2.7% 4.3% 93.0% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:10:00 恐慌 2.9% 4.4% 92.7% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:05:00 恐慌 3.2% 4.4% 92.4% 0.30
2026-09-24 10:00:00 恐慌 3.5% 4.6% 92.0% 0.30
2026-09-24 09:55:00 恐慌 3.8% 4.7% 91.5% 0.30
2026-09-24 09:50:00 恐慌 4.2% 4.9% 90.9% 0.30
2026-09-24 09:45:00 恐慌 4.7% 5.1% 90.2% 0.30
2026-09-24 09:40:00 恐慌 5.3% 5.4% 89.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 09:35:00 恐慌 6.0% 5.7% 88.3% 0.30
2026-09-24 09:30:00 恐慌 6.8% 6.0% 87.1% 0.30
2026-09-24 09:25:00 恐慌 7.8% 6.4% 85.8% 0.30